PRINT STILL IMPORTANT IN MEDIA UNIVERSE

The future of paper is hotly debated around the world. Its standing, particularly in news media, is likely to diminish, but its overall importance is not in question.

Roman Hohol, a consultant with AMEC’s Forest Industry Consulting group, expects that paper will have a diminishing but still important role in the future.

“Newsprint consumption will be lower in areas like North America, Western Europe and Japan. On the other hand, newsprint consumption will grow in Asia, but at a lower rate than what many forecasters expect,” Hohol believes.

“In magazine papers the decline will not be as severe as in newsprint. I believe magazine advertising will come back faster than newspaper advertising.”

Roman Hohol has more than 30 years of strategic marketing, business development and market research experience in the international paper industry. He works for AMEC which provides consultancy, engineering and project management services to the world’s energy, power and process industries.

New drivers for paper demand

Hohol lists factors that will shape future paper demand: changes in consumer media habits and spending on entertainment, changes in media distribution channels, evolving media company and advertising strategies as well as environmental issues.

Hohol has previously characterised the coexistence of the new electronic media and print as “peaceful” – he believes a more correct wording now would be “turbulent co-existence.” “It is not a coincidence that the slowdown in global graphic paper demand, particularly in North America, Western Europe and Japan, has occurred at precisely the same time as the very rapid adoption of broadband Internet and mobile telephones. The year 2000 is very instructive as it was the last good year for paper demand growth.”

He believes this is especially important to keep in mind when we talk about growth markets in the paper business, such as China or India.

“We should be mindful that young people in these two populous nations might skip using printed media and go directly to electronic media.”

Environmental issues are part of the picture as well, for both e-media and print. The paper industry has a good environmental story to tell that needs to be explained in the future.

Paper has its fortes

“We simply need to understand that this is a structural change in paper consumption, not only something related to the current recession. After accepting the fact, the paper industry needs to adjust its decision making accordingly.”

Opportunities will come to those who are quick to see opportunities and agile in their decision-making process. Companies with good strategies that manage their capacities well will be among the winners.

Paper and print continue to have many advantages – and they are not about to disappear, despite everything that is being said.

Print is portable, it has immediacy, it can have aesthetic value, and it is very user friendly.

“In fact, there is nothing as good as print out there at the moment. Rather, simulations of print are being done.”

It is very important to remember that new technology is often overestimated in the short run, and underestimated in the long term. Nevertheless, no new media has ever replaced an old media. Rather, it just becomes part of a larger media universe.